George Soros’s “imperial circle” describes a self-reinforcing macroeconomic loop in which high relative interest rates attract foreign capital, those inflows finance fiscal and external deficits, the currency remains supported, and the strong currency then deepens the trade and current-account imbalance until confidence weakens and the cycle reverses. The thesis rests on several assumptions: that capital is highly mobile and yield-sensitive, that foreign investors remain will

The Iran conflict has driven oil prices sharply higher (Brent crude around ~$110/bbl by late April 2026), spilling into higher inflation and a weaker shilling in Kenya. Headline inflation jumped to 5.6% in April (from 4.4% in March), while core inflation remains low (~2–3%). The Kenyan shilling fell past KSh130/$ (weakest since Aug 2024), forcing CBK to deploy reserves (≈$1 billion) to defend it. At its April MPC, CBK held the rate at 8.75%, signalling a data‑dependent stance

Introduction The month of March 2026 reminded us that investment markets do not move in isolation. Events thousands of kilometres away—in this case, an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East—can have direct and immediate effects on the value of your portfolio. We believe that an informed investor is a confident investor. Let us walk you through the recent events and what they mean for your financial goals. Part 1: What Is Geopolitical Risk? Geopolitical risk refers to

Economic indicators are critical tools for investors, policymakers, and businesses alike. They provide insights into the health of an economy and help forecast future performance. Understanding these indicators can significantly impact investment decisions and market strategies. In this blog post, we will explore various economic indicators, their significance, and how they influence market behavior. Eye-level view of a bustling city skyline with financial district buildings